THIS WEEK
+3.4 °C
central Pacific (the “Niño 3.4” box) compared with normal · week centred on 28 Oct 2026
Very strong (a “super” El Niño) level this week · the 3-month average (Jul–Sep 2026) is +2.44 °C — very strong (a “super” el niño)
A new weekly record — above the previous high of +3.0 °C (Nov 2015). Weekly readings began in 1981.
Day by day (satellite): +3.4 °C on 2 Nov.
NOAA CPC weekly · OISST · vs 1991–2020
NOAA'S OFFICIAL STATUS
El Niño Advisory
“El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance).”
Issued 8 Oct 2026 · next update 12 Nov 2026
NOAA Climate Prediction Center
AGAINST 1877–78
0.78×
the 1877–78 peak so far — 3-month average +2.44 °C (Jul–Sep 2026) against its +3.11 °C
To beat 1877–78 this event needs a 3-month average above +3.11 °C. To double it would take +6.2 °C — a central Pacific near 33 °C in December, hotter than the western Pacific warm pool, normally the warmest open ocean on Earth.
ERSSTv5 · each era vs its own 30-year normal
For Jul–Sep, 2026–27 reads +2.44 °C — ahead of all 22 strong El Niños since 1854 at the same point of the year (next best: 1877–78, +2.35 °C).
Combined live storage ÷ USBR active capacity. Shortage tiers are officially set by USBR from the projected Jan-1 Mead elevation; this shows where Mead's current 1,039.2 ft falls. · USBR · 2026-11-03
SWE (snow water equivalent) = how many inches of water the snowpack would make if it all melted — it is next spring's river · WY2027 = the water year, 1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027
9 drought events in the current Copernicus GDO analysis period (through 2026-11-02) · 8.32 M km² of land · 9 of 9 with mapped footprints · GDACS also lists 28 drought events whose last analysis period has passed — they are not shown, mapped or counted here
MECHANISM Surface melt lowers the ice surface into warmer air (the melt–elevation feedback), a self-reinforcing loss that eventually removes most of the sheet.
IF CROSSED Commits the world to ~7 m of sea-level rise over millennia and freshens the North Atlantic.
Rising ~1.7 ppm/yr · higher than at any point in the 800,000-year ice-core record.
Rising ~6.4 ppb/yr · ≈2.7× pre-industrial (722 ppb) · ~80× CO₂'s warming punch over 20 years.
Above pre-industrial. Warmest 12 months: +1.62 °C to Aug 2024 · 40 months in a row at least +1.3 °C.
Extent for this date across the satellite record · 3.1 σ below the 1981–2010 average.
Rising +3.9 mm/yr over the last decade — up from +2.8 in 1993–2002 · ocean heat + land-ice melt; the smoothed rise never gives back.
That low was the lowest since Lake Mead filled (late 1930s) · full pool 1,229 ft.
That low was the lowest since Lake Powell filled (1980) · full pool 3,700 ft.
Basin mean over 136 SNOTEL stations · water year WY2027 · peak so far 1.0 in (Nov 2).