CO₂ milestone
MILESTONE427.9ppm
2.05 ppm below the 430 mark
Rising ~1.6 ppm/yr · higher than at any point in the 800,000-year ice-core record.
ATMOSPHERE · 2026-09-18
Right now the planet is running about +1.51 °C hotter than pre-industrial times, carbon dioxide stands at 427.9 ppm — more than at any point in at least 800,000 years and the tropical Pacific is in El Niño (running warmer than usual). The live event wall is tracking 198 large wildfires, 1 active tropical cyclone and 46 earthquakes in the last 24 hours. New here? Start with the guide →
Vital signs
Coral bleaching
?49reefs at alert
of 214 stations · 111 under stress
39 AT ALERT LVL 2
NOAA CRW · 09-17
Lake Powell
?3,516.84ft
+26.8 ft vs min power pool
146.8 ft above dead pool
USBR UC · daily · 09-18
Drought · US + world
?59.4% of the US in drought
13 drought events worldwide · 8.3 M km²
2.0% exceptional (D4)
US Drought Monitor · 09-15
Wildfire · Global
?223,995hotspots / 24 h
ΣFRP 2,198 GW · VIIRS NOAA-20 + 21
100 fire events in 9 countries
NASA FIRMS · GDACS · NIFC · 09-19
Ocean— El Niño, sea temperature, sea level & cyclone energy
LOADING SERIES…
WEEKLY ANOMALY ONI 3-MO MEAN EL NIÑO EPISODE LA NIÑA EPISODE
SOURCE: NOAA CPC ↗ weekly · anomalies vs 1991–2020 · weekly 1981→ · ONI 1950→
LOADING SERIES…
60-DAY SMOOTH SATELLITE CYCLES
SOURCE: Univ. of Colorado Sea Level Group ↗ ~10-day satellite cycles · CU altimetry 1993→ · seasonal signals removed · GIA-corrected · releases trail today by ~2–3 months
LOADING SERIES…
1981–2010 ±2σ ALL YEARS 1981→ — HOVER TO NAME ONE
SOURCE: Climate Reanalyzer · NOAA OISST v2.1 ↗ daily · OISST v2.1 1981→ · band = 1981–2010 mean ±2σ (computed from the daily record) · via residential relay
LOADING SERIES…
1981–2010 ±2σ ALL YEARS 1981→ — HOVER TO NAME ONE
SOURCE: Climate Reanalyzer · NOAA OISST v2.1 ↗ daily · OISST v2.1 1981→ · band = 1981–2010 mean ±2σ (computed from the daily record) · via residential relay
LOADING SERIES…
1991–2020 NORMAL TO DATE ALL SEASONS 1980→ — HOVER TO NAME ONE
SOURCE: NOAA NCEI IBTrACS v04r01 ↗ daily · Σ v²/10⁴ over 6-hourly observations at tropical-storm strength or above · 1-minute winds · normal = 1991–2020 · seasons 1980→ · running season provisional
Reefs— coral heat stress
LOADING STATIONS…
ALERT LVL 2ALERT LVL 1WARNINGWATCH NO STRESS DHW = °C-weeks of accumulated heat stress
SOURCE: NOAA Coral Reef Watch ↗ daily 5 km satellite SST · 214 virtual reef stations · 5.8 MB source reduced server-side to ~24 KB · product runs ~2 days behind
Water— the Colorado River system
COLORADO RIVER SYSTEM
Powell + Mead · one system ◆ MEAD: TIER 2 SHORTAGE RANGE23.7% of combined
capacity
capacity
050.4 MAF combined capacity
- POWELL 5.1 / 24.3 MAF
- MEAD 6.9 / 26.1 MAF
- SYSTEM 12.0 MAF stored
Combined live storage ÷ USBR active capacity. Shortage tiers are officially set by USBR from the projected Jan-1 Mead elevation; this shows where Mead's current 1,038.4 ft falls. · USBR · 2026-09-18
LOADING SERIES…
POOL ELEVATION OPERATING THRESHOLDS
SOURCE: USBR Lower Colorado ↗ monthly 1935→ · daily current month · shortage tiers per 2007 Guidelines/DCP
LOADING SERIES…
POOL ELEVATION OPERATING THRESHOLDS
SOURCE: USBR hydrodata (site 919) ↗ daily 1963→ · capacity 24.32 MAF
LOADING SERIES…
WY2026 WY2025 MEDIAN (WY1965→) 10th–90th PERCENTILE the Compact point — Lake Powell's release
SOURCE: USGS Water Data ↗ daily mean discharge · Colorado R. at Lees Ferry, AZ · records: Green River 1894→ · Cisco 1913→ · Lees Ferry 1921→ · climatology = the regulated era (WY1965→)
LOADING SERIES…
1991–2020 MEDIAN ALL WATER YEARS 1991→ — HOVER TO NAME ONE
SOURCE: USDA NRCS SNOTEL (AWDB) ↗ daily · 136 SNOTEL stations, hydrologic region 14 · basin mean SWE · water year OCT 1 → SEP 30 · median = 1991–2020 normals
Drought— world events & the US Drought Monitor
LOADING WORLD DROUGHTS…
13 drought events in the current Copernicus GDO analysis period (through 2026-09-17) · 8.31 M km² of land · 13 of 13 with mapped footprints · GDACS also lists 27 drought events whose last analysis period has passed — they are not shown, mapped or counted here
AFFECTED AREA ORANGE+ ESCALATION DROUGHT EVENT a filled ◆ = GDACS ORANGE/RED · click any marker for details · footprints are model-derived (Copernicus GDO)
SOURCE: US Drought Monitor · Copernicus GDO ↗ US Drought Monitor released weekly (Thu), author-drawn, contiguous US — 19 MB source reduced server-side to ~45 KB · world events from Copernicus GDO via GDACS, re-analysed about every 10 days, model-derived rather than author-drawn · the two are never mixed into one number
Fire— hotspots & incidents worldwide
LOADING HOTSPOTS…
< 20 MW20–100100–500500–2,500≥ 2,500 MW SATELLITE CLUSTER OFFICIAL EVENT (GDACS) NAMED US INCIDENT a filled ◆ = GDACS ORANGE/RED escalation cell colour = ΣFRP (fire radiative power) per 0.5° cell · click any marker for details
SOURCE: NASA FIRMS · GDACS · NIFC WFIGS ↗ VIIRS 375 m thermal anomalies from TWO satellites (NOAA-20 + NOAA-21, ~50 min apart on the same orbit) · rolling 24 h · ~21 MB reduced server-side to ~125 KB · detections are hotspots, not fire perimeters — gas flares and industrial heat detect too, and much of the African & Australian signal is agricultural or savanna burning rather than disaster
Ice— polar sea ice
LOADING SERIES…
1981–2010 ±2σ ALL YEARS 1978→ — HOVER TO NAME ONE
SOURCE: NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4 ↗ daily · satellite record 1978→ · band = 1981–2010 mean ±2σ
Air— greenhouse gases & temperature
LOADING SERIES…
TREND (DESEASONALIZED) SEASONAL (SMOOTHED)
SOURCE: NOAA GML ↗ daily global mean · GML record 2016→ · Mauna Loa era 1958→
LOADING SERIES…
TREND (DESEASONALIZED) MONTHLY (SEASONAL)
SOURCE: NOAA GML ↗ monthly global mean · NOAA GML 1983→ · shorter-lived but far more potent than CO₂, molecule for molecule
LOADING SERIES…
12-MO RUNNING MEAN MONTHLY
SOURCE: NASA GISS ↗ monthly · GISTEMP v4 land+ocean · record 1880→
Tipping points— Earth-system thresholds
Cryosphere 9 elements Ice sheets, sea ice, mountain glaciers and frozen ground.
Ocean circulation 2 elements The Atlantic overturning and the deep convection that drives it.
Biosphere 5 elements Forests, coral reefs and monsoon systems.
▲ IN RANGE Greenland Ice Sheet GLOBAL CORE
THRESHOLD 1.5 °C [0.8–3.0 °C] TIMESCALE ~10,000 yr once crossed STATE current warming has reached this element's low threshold estimate — the assessed window where tipping becomes possible, not a sign it has tipped
MECHANISM Surface melt lowers the ice surface into warmer air (the melt–elevation feedback), a self-reinforcing loss that eventually removes most of the sheet.
IF CROSSED Commits the world to ~7 m of sea-level rise over millennia and freshens the North Atlantic.
▲ IN RANGE (≥ low estimate) ◆ NEARING (≤ 0.5 °C below) ● BELOW RANGE CURRENT WARMING PARIS 1.5 / 2 °C bar = assessed range · notch = central estimate · select a row for detail
SOURCE: Armstrong McKay et al. 2022, Science ↗ 16 assessed elements · thresholds: Armstrong McKay et al. 2022 · warming vs pre-industrial (1850–1900)
Events— happening right now
0/0 PLOTTED
HOVER, TAP, OR FOCUS AN EVENT — EVERY DOT IS A LIST ROW · DOUBLE-TAP THE MAP TO ZOOM
▲CRITICAL ◆WARNING ●WATCH ·INFO DOT ∝ QUAKE MAGNITUDE ◎N = CLUSTERED SWARM SHADE = NIGHT SIDE (COMPUTED) ↗ = SOURCE ANNOUNCEMENT
SOURCE: NHC · NWS · EONET · GDACS · USGS ↗ cadence 15–30 min per source · alerts filtered to Severe+Extreme · EONET top 50 of — open · ↗ opens the source announcement
News— the climate desk
SOURCE: Guardian · Carbon Brief · Yale E360 · NASA EO ↗ RSS · fetched 45–60 min · deduped by title · time is the only ranking
RECORDS & MILESTONES
where today sits in the owned record ?CH₄ milestone
MILESTONE1,941ppb
59 ppb below the 2,000 mark
Rising ~5.9 ppb/yr · ≈2.7× pre-industrial (722 ppb) · ~80× CO₂'s warming punch over 20 years.
ATMOSPHERE · 2026-05-15
Global temperature
RECORD+1.48°C
Hottest month in the 146-year record (Sep 2023)
39 straight months ≥ +1.0 °C · warmest 12-mo mean +1.32 °C to Aug 2024 (vs 1951–80).
ATMOSPHERE · 2026-08-15
Arctic sea ice
BELOW AVG4.67M km²
81st-lowest for Sep 18 in 48 years
Extent for this date across the satellite record · 1.8 σ below the 1981–2010 average.
CRYOSPHERE · 2026-09-18
Sea level milestone
MILESTONE+113mm since 1993
7 mm below the +120 mark
Rising +3.9 mm/yr over the last decade — up from +2.8 in 1993–2002 · ocean heat + land-ice melt; the smoothed rise never gives back.
OCEAN · 2026-06-27
Lake Mead
RECORD LOW1,038.4ft
A new low since the reservoir filled
That low was the lowest since Lake Mead filled (late 1930s) · full pool 1,229 ft.
WATER · 2026-09-18
Lake Powell
NEAR-LOW3,516.8ft
0.2 ft above its Sep 2026 low
That low was the lowest since Lake Powell filled (1980) · full pool 3,700 ft.
WATER · 2026-09-18
Upper Colorado snowpack
RECORD LOW8.8in SWE
Lowest season peak in the 36-year record (prev WY2002, 10.9 in)
WY2026 peaked Mar 7 at 66% of median · Apr 1: 27% · melted out for the season.
WATER · 2026-09-18