Earth is about 1.5 °C hotter than before the industrial age.
Greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels are the cause, and the effects show up in the ice, the oceans and the weather. This year El Niño, a natural warm swing in the Pacific, is adding extra heat on top. New here? Start with the guide →
The Paris Agreement aims to hold long-term warming to 1.5 °C. It is judged on 20-year averages, so one hot year is not a breach, but it shows how close the world is to that line.
Storms, earthquakes, severe weather, wildfires and climate news, updated every few minutes, day and night.
Storms, quakes & alerts
Every active tropical cyclone, significant earthquake, severe US weather warning and major disaster alert, on one map. Each feed is checked every 15–30 minutes.
Tap or hover a dot to read it · double-tap the map to zoom in
▲Critical◆Warning●Watch·Infobigger dot = stronger earthquake◎number = several events in one spot — tap to zoom in or spread them outshaded = the night side of Earth right now↗ opens the official announcement
Source: NHC · NWS · EONET · GDACS · USGS ↗each feed is checked every 15–30 minutes · US alerts shown only at Severe or Extreme · NASA EONET: the top 50 of — open events · ↗ opens the official announcement
Hurricanes & typhoons
Every active tropical cyclone on Earth: where it has been, how strong it is now, whether it is strengthening fast, and where the official forecast says it is going. Warmer oceans are their fuel.
1 tropical cyclone active worldwide. Strongest: Severe tropical storm In-fa (western Pacific), 60 kt.◇ Forecasters are watching 4 areas where a new storm could form — 1 with a high chance.
Could form next — areas forecasters are watching for new storms
Next 2 days60%mediumNext 7 days70%high
eastern & central Pacific · US National Hurricane Center · issued 2 h ago · tracked as CP95
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure located over the eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin are gradually becoming better organized.
The forecaster's full note
Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the Central Pacific basin during the next few days while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
eastern & central Pacific · US National Hurricane Center · issued 2 h ago
A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America.
The forecaster's full note
Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend.
Atlantic · US National Hurricane Center · issued 2 h ago
A non-tropical low pressure area is located a few hundred miles south of Bermuda.
The forecaster's full note
Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. For more information on this system, including Gale Warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
Tropical stormCategory 1Category 2Category 3 (major)Category 4–5typhoons are coloured by their equivalent strength on the same scalesolid line = path so far · dashed = official forecast · circles = where the centre will probably be (JMA, 70% chance)shaded cone = where NHC expects the centre to go (about two-thirds of past forecast centres stayed inside) — wind, rain and surge reach well outside ithurricane warninghurricane watchtropical storm warningtropical storm watcha ring around a storm = major strength (Category 3+) · tap a storm for details, or any dot on a path for its time and strength · double-tap to zoom · zooms to ×64✕low chance✕medium✕high chance of forming✕ = a disturbance being watched (NHC colours it by its 2-day chance) · hatched = where NHC expects one could form within 7 days, coloured by the 7-day chance · dashed arrow = its expected drift
Source: NOAA NHC · Japan Meteorological Agency · GDACS ↗NHC covers the Atlantic and eastern & central Pacific (1-minute winds); JMA, the official centre for the western Pacific, uses 10-minute winds, so its storms keep JMA's classes rather than a hurricane category; GDACS fills the other oceans · areas that could become storms: NHC's tropical weather outlook (chance in percent over 2 and 7 days) and the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center's advisories for the Pacific and Indian Oceans (low / medium / high over 24 hours) · the cone and the coastal watches and warnings are NHC's own, from each advisory · each feed checked every 15–30 minutes · El Niño years usually mean a quieter Atlantic and more, stronger storms in the central and eastern Pacific
Climate news
The latest stories from The Guardian, Carbon Brief, Yale Environment 360 and NASA's Earth Observatory, newest first.
Fires seen from space. Weather satellites pass over several times a day and flag every hotspot, a patch of ground hot enough to be burning, from the last 24 hours. The biggest fire events are named by country.
183,473satellite hotspots — spots of fire heat seen from orbit in the last 24 hours (NOAA-20 + NOAA-21)· total fire power ΣFRP 1,859 GW· worldwide: 100 major fires tracked, 1,396,349 hectares burned, in 19 countries· US: 201 active incidents, 1,029,137 acres· 2026-11-04
LOADING HOTSPOTS…
< 20 MW20–100100–500500–2,500≥ 2,500 MWFire cluster seen by satelliteOfficially tracked fire (GDACS)Named US firea filled ◆ = orange or red alertsquare colour = total fire power in that half-degree square (megawatts) · tap or click any marker for details · double-tap to zoom
Source: NASA FIRMS · GDACS · NIFC WFIGS ↗heat detections at 375 m from two weather satellites (NOAA-20 and NOAA-21, VIIRS instrument, about 50 minutes apart) · rolling 24 hours · a hotspot is heat, not a fire outline — gas flares and industry show up too, and much of Africa's and Australia's signal is farm or savanna burning rather than disaster
1,942.1 ppbparts per billion of methane· up 6.4 ppb on a year ago· about 2.7× the level before industry (722 ppb)
LOADING SERIES…
Trend (the yearly cycle removed)Monthly level, with the yearly cycle
Source: NOAA GML ↗monthly global average since 1983 · methane breaks down faster than CO₂ but traps far more heat per molecule
ATMOSPHEREGlobal temperature — difference from normal?
+1.38 °Cin September 2026· 12-month average +1.21 °C· compared with NASA's 1951–1980 average= +1.51 °C above pre-industrial
LOADING SERIES…
12-month averageSingle months
Source: NASA GISS ↗monthly, land and ocean combined (NASA GISTEMP v4) · since 1880 · 'normal' here is NASA's 1951–1980 average, about 0.3 °C warmer than pre-industrial
Sea ice
Polar sea ice grows every winter and shrinks every summer. Over the decades the Arctic has been losing ice in every season, and dark open water absorbs far more sunlight than bright ice.
CRYOSPHERESea ice — how much of the polar ocean is frozen, day by day?
8.15 million km²of Arctic sea ice · 2026-11-03· 1.73 million km² below the 1981–2010 average for the date (-17.5%)UNUSUALLY LOW · 3.1σ
LOADING SERIES…
Normal range (1981–2010)Every year since 1978 — highlight any of them with “Add a year”
Source: NSIDC Sea Ice Index v4 ↗daily satellite record since 1978 · shaded band = the normal range for each date, 1981–2010 · 'extent' counts ocean at least 15% covered by ice
The ocean
The ocean soaks up most of the extra heat, which raises sea level and can fuel stronger storms. El Niño and La Niña are natural swings in the Pacific that nudge the whole planet warmer or cooler for a year or two.
OCEANEl Niño — central Pacific temperature (Niño 3.4)?
EL NIÑO— the tropical Pacific is running warmer than usual· latest week +3.4 °C from normal (sea surface 30.2 °C)· 3-month average +2.46 °C (ONI, the official measure)· 5 seasons in a row past the +0.5 °C lineOpen the El Niño station — ranked against every event since 1854 →
LOADING SERIES…
Weekly difference from normal3-month average (ONI)El Niño periodsLa Niña periods
Source: NOAA CPC ↗weekly · differences from the 1991–2020 normal · weekly readings since 1981, the 3-month index (ONI) since 1950 · El Niño is declared when the 3-month average stays at +0.5 °C or more
OCEANSea level — global mean (satellite altimetry)?
+113 mm since 1993(about 4.4 inches)· rising 3.9 mm a year over the last decade· 2.8 mm a year in 1993–2002 — the rise is accelerating
LOADING SERIES…
60-day averageIndividual satellite passes (~10 days each)
Source: Univ. of Colorado Sea Level Group ↗satellite measurements every ~10 days since 1993 · seasonal swings removed · corrected for land still rising after the ice ages (GIA) · each release runs 2–3 months behind
Normal range (1981–2010)Every year since 1981 — highlight any of them with “Add a year”
Source: Climate Reanalyzer · NOAA OISST v2.1 ↗daily satellite and buoy record since 1981 (NOAA OISST v2.1) · shaded band = the normal range for each date, 1981–2010 · fetched through a home-network relay because the source blocks data-centre traffic
Normal range (1981–2010)Every year since 1981 — highlight any of them with “Add a year”
Source: Climate Reanalyzer · NOAA OISST v2.1 ↗daily satellite and buoy record since 1981 (NOAA OISST v2.1) · shaded band = the normal range for each date, 1981–2010 · fetched through a home-network relay because the source blocks data-centre traffic
OCEANHurricane & typhoon energy this season (ACE)?
19.5units of storm energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic so far in 2026 · 2026-11-03· 17% of normal for this date (116.3)RUNNING QUIET· a normal full season is 123
LOADING SERIES…
Normal so far by this date (1991–2020)Every season since 1980 — highlight any of them with “Add a year”
Source: NOAA NCEI IBTrACS v04r01 ↗ACE adds up every storm's wind speed squared, every 6 hours while it is at least tropical-storm strength — so it counts how strong storms are AND how long they last · normal = 1991–2020 · seasons since 1980 · this season is provisional · El Niño years usually mean a quieter Atlantic and a busier Pacific
Coral reefs
When the water stays too warm for too long, corals push out the algae that feed them and turn white. NOAA tracks that heat stress at reef sites around the world.
119 of 214reef areas under bleaching heat stress▲ 27 at alert level 2 (severe bleaching)◆ 7 at alert level 1· 16 warning· 69 watch· most heat-stressed: Northern Line Islands, 26.9 °C-weeks (DHW)· 2026-11-02
LOADING STATIONS…
Tap or click a reef to read it. Double-tap to zoom in.
Alert level 2Alert level 1WarningWatchNo stressheat stress (DHW, "degree heating weeks") = how far above its safe summer limit the water has been, added up over 12 weeks — at 4 significant bleaching is likely, at 8 severe bleaching and coral death
Source: NOAA Coral Reef Watch ↗daily satellite sea temperature at 5 km · 214 reef areas worldwide · runs about 2 days behind
Water: the Colorado River
Lakes Mead and Powell are the two largest reservoirs in the US and hold the Colorado River's water for the cities and farms of the American Southwest. Less mountain snow and hotter summers mean less water reaching them.
COLORADO RIVER SYSTEM
Powell + Mead · one system◆ MEAD: TIER 2 SHORTAGE RANGE
25.8%of combined capacity
050.4 MAF combined capacity
POWELL 6.1 / 24.3 MAF
MEAD 6.9 / 26.1 MAF
SYSTEM 13.0 MAF stored
Combined live storage ÷ USBR active capacity. Shortage tiers are officially set by USBR from the projected Jan-1 Mead elevation; this shows where Mead's current 1,039.2 ft falls. · USBR · 2026-11-03
1,039.21 ftlake surface above sea level· 189.8 ft below full· 144.2 ft above "dead pool", where water can no longer flow out of the dam· below the Tier 2 shortage line (1,050 ft) — required cuts to Colorado River deliveries deepen
LOADING SERIES…
Lake surface elevationShortage and operating lines
Source: USBR Lower Colorado ↗monthly since 1935, daily this month · shortage lines from the 2007 Interim Guidelines and the Drought Contingency Plan · an acre-foot is enough water to cover an acre (about ¾ of a football field) one foot deep
3,534.50 ftlake surface above sea level· 165.5 ft below full· holding 6.11 million acre-feet (25.1% full)· 164.5 ft above "dead pool", where water can no longer flow out of the dam· 44.5 ft above the lowest level at which Glen Canyon Dam can still make hydropower (3,490 ft)
LOADING SERIES…
Lake surface elevationShortage and operating lines
6,460 cfsLEES FERRY · 2026-11-03· 68% of the median for this day68% LOW· WY2026 carried 5.95 MAF▲ DRIEST OF 62 YEARS SINCE 1965· 10-yr mean 8.11 MAF
cfs = cubic feet of water flowing past each second · MAF = million acre-feet (an acre-foot covers an acre one foot deep) · WY2026 = the water year, October 2025 to September 2026
LOADING SERIES…
WY2027WY2026Typical flow for the date (median since 1965)Normal range (middle 80% of years)the Compact point — Lake Powell's release
Source: USGS Water Data ↗daily average flow · Colorado R. at Lees Ferry, AZ · records begin: Green River 1894, Cisco 1913, Lees Ferry 1921 · 'normal' = the years since the dam was filled (water year 1965 on)
1.0 in SWEbasin mean · 2026-11-03· 124% of the 1991–2020 median (0.8 in)
SWE (snow water equivalent) = how many inches of water the snowpack would make if it all melted — it is next spring's river · WY2027 = the water year, 1 October 2026 to 30 September 2027
LOADING SERIES…
Typical snowpack for the date (1991–2020 median)Every water year since 1991 — highlight any of them with “Add a year”
Source: USDA NRCS SNOTEL (AWDB) ↗daily · 136 automated snow stations (SNOTEL) across the Upper Colorado basin · basin average · water year runs 1 Oct → 30 Sep · 'median' = the 1991–2020 normal
Drought
Where the land is drier than normal: the weekly US Drought Monitor, and drought events around the world.
9drought events tracked worldwide8.32 M km²· 78 countries· 3 at orange alert or higher· US: 49.5% of the Lower 48 in drought (D1+)▼ -1.2 points on last week· 9% extreme or worse (D3+)· 1.7% exceptional (D4)· week of 2026-10-27
LOADING WORLD DROUGHTS…
9 drought events in the current Copernicus GDO analysis period (through 2026-11-02) · 8.32 M km² of land ·
9 of 9 with mapped footprints · GDACS also lists 28 drought events whose last analysis period has passed — they are not shown, mapped or counted here
Area in droughtOrange or red alertDrought eventa filled ◆ = orange or red alert (GDACS) · tap or click any marker for details · areas are modelled by Copernicus, not hand-drawn
Source: US Drought Monitor · Copernicus GDO ↗the US Drought Monitor is drawn by drought experts every Thursday for the Lower 48 · world drought events come from the Copernicus Global Drought Observatory (via GDACS), recomputed from models about every 10 days · the two are never added together
Tipping points
Some parts of the Earth system could change suddenly and for good once warming passes a certain level. This board shows today's warming against each estimated threshold.
EARTH SYSTEMTipping points — proximity to assessed thresholds?
+1.51 °Cwarming so far, compared with pre-industrial▲ 10 IN RANGE◆ 3 NEARING· NASA's 12-month average (+1.21 °C) plus 0.3 °C to measure from pre-industrial
· one year's figure, not the 20-year average the Paris goals are judged on
▲ NOW +1.51°C
Cryosphere9 elementsIce sheets, sea ice, mountain glaciers and frozen ground.
Ocean circulation2 elementsThe Atlantic overturning and the deep convection that drives it.
Biosphere5 elementsForests, coral reefs and monsoon systems.
0246810°C
▲ IN RANGEGreenland Ice SheetGLOBAL CORE
THRESHOLD 1.5 °C [0.8–3.0 °C]TIMESCALE ~10,000 yr once crossedSTATEcurrent warming has reached this element's low threshold estimate — the assessed window where tipping becomes possible, not a sign it has tipped
MECHANISM Surface melt lowers the ice surface into warmer air (the melt–elevation feedback), a self-reinforcing loss that eventually removes most of the sheet.
IF CROSSED Commits the world to ~7 m of sea-level rise over millennia and freshens the North Atlantic.
▲ In range — warming has reached the lowest estimate◆ Nearing — within 0.5 °C● Below the range Warming today Paris goals, 1.5 and 2 °Cbar = the scientists' estimated range · notch = their central estimate · tap or click a row for details