EL NIÑO STATION · LIVE
El Niño is a warming of the tropical Pacific that reshuffles rain, drought, storms and heat around the world. This page follows it live and puts every number beside the strongest El Niños in the thermometer record — including the 1877–78 event, the strongest of them all when each era is measured fairly.
THIS WEEK
+3.1 °C
central Pacific (the “Niño 3.4” box) compared with normal · week centred on 23 Sep 2026
Very strong (a “super” El Niño) level this week · the 3-month average (Jun–Aug 2026) is +1.97 °C — strong
A new weekly record — above the previous high of +3.0 °C (Nov 2015). Weekly readings began in 1981.
For this week of the year, the previous high was +2.0 °C (2015) — this year is 1.1 °C above it.
Day by day (satellite): +3.3 °C on 30 Sep.
NOAA CPC weekly · OISST · vs 1991–2020
NOAA'S OFFICIAL STATUS
El Niño Advisory
“El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.”
Issued 10 Sep 2026 · next update 8 Oct 2026
El Niño strengthened further over the past month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +3.0°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Except for the Niño-4 index, which decreased to +0.1°C in August, values in the other Niño indices increased, reaching +1.8°C in Niño-3.4, +2.5°C in Niño-3, and +3.4°C in Niño-1+2. The equatorial subsurface temperature index (average from 180°-100°W) remained steady during August, reflecting a deeper-than-average thermocline. Subsurface temperatures continued to be significantly above average, with widespread anomalies in excess of +10.0°C at depth. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies extended from the western to the east-central equatorial Pacific. Enhanced convection and rainfall persisted from the central to the eastern Pacific, while anomalies remained suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices remained negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño.
The CPC Official ENSO outlook, which synthesizes multiple models from North America and abroad, indicates El Niño will continue to strengthen through the end of the year. During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75% chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950 (+2.5°C or more for a 3-month RONI value). With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Niño are larger, though not guaranteed (see CPC outlooks for probabilities of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27.
AGAINST 1877–78
0.63×
the 1877–78 peak so far — 3-month average +1.97 °C (Jun–Aug 2026) against its +3.11 °C
To beat 1877–78 this event needs a 3-month average above +3.11 °C. To double it would take +6.2 °C — a central Pacific near 33 °C in December, hotter than the western Pacific warm pool, normally the warmest open ocean on Earth.
ERSSTv5 · each era vs its own 30-year normal
For Jun–Aug, 2026–27 reads +1.97 °C — ahead of all 22 strong El Niños since 1854 at the same point of the year (next best: 1877–78, +1.81 °C).
| # | El Niño | Peak | When | Check | ONI | RONI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1877–78 | +3.11 | Dec–Feb 1877–78 | +2.71 | — | — |
| 2 | 2015–16 | +2.65 | Nov–Jan 2015–16 | +2.51 | +2.59 | +2.25 |
| 3 | 1888–89 | +2.59 | Dec–Feb 1888–89 | +2.15 | — | — |
| 4 | 1997–98 | +2.41 | Oct–Dec 1997 | +2.38 | +2.37 | +2.28 |
| 5 | 1940–41 | +2.37 | Dec–Feb 1940–41 | +1.41 | — | — |
| 6 | 1902–03 | +2.27 | Sep–Nov 1902 | +1.60 | — | — |
| 7 | 1982–83 | +2.24 | Nov–Jan 1982–83 | +2.27 | +2.14 | +2.40 |
| 8 | 1972–73 | +2.13 | Nov–Jan 1972–73 | +1.98 | +1.84 | +1.97 |
| 9 | 1965–66 | +1.99 | Sep–Nov 1965 | +1.78 | +1.82 | +1.99 |
| 10 | 2026–27 so far | +1.97 | Jun–Aug 2026 | +1.25 | +1.80 | +1.36 |
| 11 | 2023–24 | +1.95 | Nov–Jan 2023–24 | +1.79 | +1.99 | +1.42 |
| 12 | 1896–97 | +1.94 | Nov–Jan 1896–97 | +1.64 | — | — |
| 13 | 1918–19 | +1.89 | Nov–Jan 1918–19 | +1.31 | — | — |
| 14 | 1957–58 | +1.82 | Dec–Feb 1957–58 | +1.43 | +1.69 | +1.89 |
| 15 | 1855–56 | +1.79 | Oct–Dec 1855 | — | — | — |
| 16 | 1991–92 | +1.73 | Dec–Feb 1991–92 | +1.52 | +1.54 | +2.12 |
| 17 | 1987–88 | +1.71 | Jul–Sep 1987 | +1.53 | +1.49 | +1.34 |
| 18 | 1905–06 | +1.65 | Jul–Sep 1905 | +1.35 | — | — |
| 19 | 1925–26 | +1.59 | Nov–Jan 1925–26 | +1.41 | — | — |
| 20 | 2009–10 | +1.57 | Nov–Jan 2009–10 | +1.53 | +1.50 | +1.50 |
| 21 | 1899–00 | +1.56 | Dec–Feb 1899–00 | +1.53 | — | — |
| 22 | 1941–42 | +1.56 | Oct–Dec 1941 | +1.34 | — | — |
| 23 | 1930–31 | +1.50 | Nov–Jan 1930–31 | +1.50 | — | — |
Peak = the highest 3-month average. Check repeats the ranking on a second, independent record (HadISST, from 1870). ONI and RONI are NOAA's own numbers, which start in 1950. The 1870s readings rest on a handful of ships, so treat gaps smaller than about 0.3 °C between old and new events as a tie.
Eastern-Pacific El Niño — warmest water hard against South America — the pattern of 1877–78, 1982–83 and 1997–98.
The dashed outline is Niño 3.4, the box every headline number on this page uses. The great eastern-Pacific El Niños — 1877–78, 1982–83, 1997–98 — piled their hottest water against South America, where it hits Peru and Ecuador hardest.
Yes. The last three months average -1.6 — the trade winds have slackened and the atmosphere is feeding the warm ocean.
Negative = lower pressure than usual over the eastern Pacific and higher over Australia: weaker trade winds, the atmosphere's half of an El Niño. Without it, warm water alone fades.
+3.5 ×10¹⁴ m³ vs normal (Aug 2026) · still building (+0.8 over 3 months).
Warm water piles up below the surface before an El Niño and is used up during one — when this falls well below zero, the event is running out of fuel.
ONI +1.80 °C
RONI +1.36 °C
Jun–Aug 2026
The whole tropical ocean is warmer than it used to be, and some of that shows up in the central Pacific whether or not there is an El Niño. NOAA's relative index (RONI) measures the central Pacific against the rest of the tropics instead, which takes that background warming out. For Jun–Aug 2026 it reads 0.44 °C lower than the standard index — that much of today's number is the warming world, not El Niño itself.
Strongest on the relative index since 1950: 1982–83 +2.40 · 1997–98 +2.28 · 2015–16 +2.25 · 1991–92 +2.12 · 1965–66 +1.99 · 1972–73 +1.97. NOAA calls a RONI of +2.5 °C or more “historic”.
These are the usual patterns, not promises — every El Niño plays out differently, and the strongest ones raise the odds rather than guarantee the outcome.
Measured the same way, 1877–78 peaked at +3.11 °C (3-month average). Twice that is +6.2 °C; three times is +9.3 °C. At double, the central Pacific would sit near 33 °C in December — warmer than the western Pacific warm pool, normally the warmest open ocean on Earth, which tops out around 30–31 °C. Nothing in 170 years of records comes close to that. What is realistic — and serious enough — is this event matching or passing 1877–78 itself: it needs to climb from +1.97 °C to above +3.11 °C. The gauge at the top tracks exactly that.
Nobody can honestly say. Thermometer records reach back to the 1850s, so “strongest on record” means since about 1854. Before that, scientists read El Niño from fossil corals, tree rings and lake sediments: those show El Niño activity has swung a lot over thousands of years, with the late 20th century among the more active stretches — but they are too coarse to rank single events against each other. This station ranks only what the instruments measured.
They measure different things on purpose. This week is a single week from satellites, against the 1991–2020 normal — the freshest reading, and the jumpiest. The 3-month average smooths the weather out; it is how El Niño strength is officially judged. The long-record numbers (the race, the leaderboard, the 1877–78 gauge) use a ship-and-buoy record that reaches 1854, with each era measured against its own normal so old and new events are compared fairly. Pulse never ranks a weekly reading against a 3-month one.
The daily satellite reading arrives twice a day; NOAA's weekly box readings on Mondays; the 3-month indices, the pressure index and the warm-water volume early each month; NOAA's official discussion on the second Thursday (next: 8 Oct 2026). Pulse checks each source on its own schedule around the clock, and this page refreshes itself when new data lands.